State Laojiao (000568): Guojiao 1573 canceled the cast pipe burden in February to reduce consumption after the epidemic

Summary and suggestions: Incident: According to the wine industry, from February 15th, the dealer will cancel the classic assembly amount of Guojiao 1573 in February 2020.

If there is a demand for the classic assembly volume of Guojiao 1573, the major regions of 武汉夜生活网 Guojiao will organize the inventory adjustment in this area.

1Q performance impact is manageable.

Affected by the epidemic, the national cellar 1573 was eventually cancelled in February, but in February it was changed to only 4% of completions in 2019, with limited impact.

According to company information, the treasury’s task targets for the first quarter were basically completed, and the liquor industry gradually entered the off-season after the Spring Festival. Therefore, from the perspective of the company, the impact of the new crown epidemic on the company’s performance was controllable.

Initially, considering that the main application scenario of high-end liquor is business transactions, consumption will move backward but will not disappear, leading to the gradual elimination of the epidemic situation. It is expected that the start of 2Q will gradually return to normal, and the company also stated that its business objectives remain unchanged.

Cancel preliminary forecasts to help dealers and sort out pipeline space.

The media disclosed that the Treasury 1573 had ceased to be issued in early January, and the market supply gap period had been reset. We judge that the inventory of dealers has decreased, but a large number of products are backlogged at consumer terminals.

Therefore, canceling corrective measures to reduce the sense of crime scene, dealers’ sales and financial pressure, and replacement will also achieve the role of social destocking, which will help the pipeline to easily and easily meet the Dragon Boat Festival and the Mid-Autumn Festival in the second half of the year,The consumption tide of National Day.

It is expected that the company will achieve a net profit of 47 in 2019-2021.

2 billion, 56.

800 million and 6.8 billion, an increase of dozens of 35.

4%, 20.

3% and 20%, the EPS is 3 respectively.

22 yuan, 3.

88 yuan and 4.

64 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 24 times, 20 times and 17 times.

The outbreak has created a configuration window. The company’s current estimate is reasonably low, and it maintains buying investment recommendations.

Risk reminders: terminal mobile sales are less than expected, food safety issues, changes in the market environment caused 佛山桑拿网 by force majeure

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