Yutong Bus (600066) July production and sales data review: benefit from supplementary production and sales growth during the transition period

Event description The company released the July 2019 production and sales report. In July 2019, the company’s passenger car production and sales were 8,272 and 7,716 vehicles, respectively, and the cumulative production and sales this year were 32,659 and 33,145, respectively.

  Incident review Production and sales have improved significantly in the past ten years, and Chinese customers have performed well.

In July, the company’s monthly production and sales of passenger cars were 8,272 and 7,716, respectively, an increase of 92 each time.

19% and 122.

88%, an increase of 89 from the previous month.

42% and 69.

58%; this year’s gradual production and sales were 32,659 and 33,145, an increase of 9 each year.

43% and 17.

36%.

The production and sales volume of the company’s passenger cars has increased significantly, and the surpassing month-on-month ratio has clearly increased from the previous month. It still performs well and basically meets expectations.

In terms of different models, the monthly output and sales growth of large passenger cars, medium passenger cars, and light passenger cars all increased significantly from last month. Among them, the performance of large passenger cars and medium passenger cars was particularly outstanding.

  Short-term: August rush installation is expected to continue in the short-term, but production and sales performance is weakening.

At least, according to the new energy transportation vehicle supplement policy in 2019, the new energy transportation vehicle supplementary transition period will end after August 7, 2019. It is expected that the new energy transportation vehicle market will be installed in early August, which is expected to bring a significant pull to the production and sales of passenger cars in the same period.Rise.

At the same time, in August, the time interval in the transition period, and the pre-purchase overdraft part of the demand for car purchases, after the transition period may bring some changes in the production and sales of passenger cars, overlapping high-speed rail and private cars to increase the overall extent of the overall demand for passenger carsDecline, the company and industry production and sales situation is likely to be weaker than in July.

  Long-term: There is room for improvement in volume and price, and we are optimistic about the company’s subsequent development.

We believe that the major increase in the passenger car industry comes from new energy bus replacement and overseas business.

The first is that the company is the leader in the passenger car industry. The market share of large and medium-sized buses is far ahead, the product line of passenger cars is complete, the overall safety is higher than the marginal height, and the company is relying on its own advantages to obtain domestic orders. The second is the company’s active deployment of overseas 重庆耍耍网 markets and the promotion of overseas business.It is expected to provide increments for the company. Third, the company actively promotes high-end product research and development, and once the research and development results are transformed, it will help the company optimize the product structure and increase the unit price and profitability of the product.

  Investment suggestion: As a leader in the passenger car industry, the company has a high overall safety margin, expanding the company’s continuous R & D and expansion, actively distributing high-end products and overseas markets, promoting the continuous optimization of the company’s product structure, and the steady improvement of profitability.

Based on this, the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 1.

15/1.

24/1.

29, corresponding to the company’s 北京夜网 closing price of 12 on August 5, 2019.

66 yuan, the company’s PE for 2019-2021 is 10.

98/10.

21/9.

83. Maintain the company’s “overweight” rating.

  Existing risks: major adjustments in industry policies; advancement of high-end products has fallen short of expectations; overseas business has fallen short of expectations.

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